Source: Pierre Lemieux
by Pierre Lemieux

“Why don’t economics—the analysis of the social consequences of individual actions—and a knowledge of initial conditions suffice to make predictions? There are many reasons. Initial conditions cannot all be perfectly measured and are continuously disturbed, which generates divergent trajectories and creates new surprises as time goes on. Preferences (tastes and values) dwell in the head of each individual. Moral character may be opaque. Thanks to the law of large numbers, the average behavior of a group of individuals may be predictable (consider the law of demand: quantity demanded is an inverse function of price), but the actions of a specific individual are not. The longer the prediction horizon, the more fog in the oracle’s crystal ball. Not surprisingly, my own predictions have not all been glorious.” (01/12/26)

https://pierrelemieux.substack.com/p/not-all-predictions-are-impossible

Source: The Reframe
by AR Moxon

“Alignment with supremacy is a vile choice. Raising the natural costs for those who make that choice by putting first things first.” (01/12/26)

https://www.the-reframe.com/absolute-immunity

Source: ProSocial Libertarians
by Daniel Shapiro

“Radley Balko’s article ‘Trump’s Immigration Nightmare: It Is Happening Here,’ may very well be the best article on Trump’s immigration policy. … We have four basic choices, as far as I can tell. #1: You can support these policies. If you do, I don’t see how you can call yourself a libertarian, a liberal, or anybody of any ideology — including conservatism — who claims to love liberty or support the ideals of the American Revolution. #2: You can oppose them but engage in what I call DTS — Downplaying Trump Syndrome. … #3: You can stick your head in the sand and not want to read about it or talk about it or be concerned with it. … #4: You can do something about it.” (01/12/26)

https://prosociallibertarians.substack.com/p/thoughts-on-balkos-nightmare-happening

Source: Responsible Statecraft
by William LeoGrande

“Back in 2014, economist Pavel Vidal estimated that if Venezuelan oil were suddenly cut off, the Cuban economy would drop 7.7 percent. Today, when Venezuela provides far less than it did then and the price of oil is about half of what it was, the impact would be less. But Cuba’s GDP has already fallen about 15 percent since the COVID pandemic. Another 4 or 5 percent drop would exacerbate the vicious circle of declines in domestic production reducing export earnings, and widening the gap between what Cuba needs to import and what it can afford. Would that be enough to collapse the Cuban government? Trump certainly seems to think so. … Such confidence is not new. Washington officials have been predicting the imminent end of the Cuban government since 1959.” (01/12/26)

https://responsiblestatecraft.org/trump-cuba-collapse/

Source: Law & Liberty
by Hans Eicholz

“There are moments within traditions of thought when the pressure of events breaks apart ideas and ways of thinking that had subsisted for ages in relative harmony. These moments, often called tipping points, mark an instant when a particular notion suddenly takes prominence in public opinion due to its seeming conformity with the logic of events. Such was the publication of Thomas Paine’s Common Sense, announced for sale by Robert Bell’s print shop in Philadelphia on January 9 and officially distributed on January 10, 250 years ago. Until that time, debate over the question of colonial rights to self-government, especially over the question of taxation, had been carried on within the framework and terms of the British or Imperial constitution.” (01/12/26)

https://lawliberty.org/where-law-would-be-king/

Source: Christian Science Monitor
by staff

“In the midst of the Arctic winter, residents of Greenland are feeling the heat of global geopolitics. United States officials have stepped up insistence on the ‘need’ to take control of the mostly ice-covered island by force or by financial means. The declarations stress Greenland’s strategic location along Arctic sea routes – which both Russia and China are vying to use – as well as access to its estimated 1.5 million tons of rare earth mineral reserves. What’s at stake ‘is not just about rare earths – it is about the very idea of sovereignty in an age of resource rivalry’, Phar Kim Beng, of the Institute of International and ASEAN Studies, wrote in the Malay Mail. The U.S. logic is ‘rooted in energy security, future-proofing supply chains (especially minerals) and in the strategic denial of competitors,’ geopolitics analyst and bestselling author Tim Marshall wrote in The Times of London.” (01/12/25)

https://www.csmonitor.com/Commentary/the-monitors-view/2026/0112/For-Greenland-partnership-over-pugnacity