Source: Astral Codex Ten
by Josh Morrison
“Pharmaceutical forecasting is untested, and the FDA is a conservative organization. Decision makers would not and should not uproot their usual process in favor of a forecasting-based one. We envision applying forecasting to the FDA gradually, increasing its prominence only after low-commitment applications have visibly succeeded. … This summer, as part of its Operation Trialblazer clinical trial reform initiative, the Trump administration announced a pilot program to speed up phase 1 trials. Incorporating forecasting into that pilot would be a concrete way of implementing this initial stage. The FDA could either employ human forecasters, partner with an AI superforecasting company, or create their own in-house software; results from this first stage would be used to calibrate its effectiveness.” (09/16/26)
https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/ai-superforecasting-should-transform
Source: American Greatness
By Victor Davis Hanson
“Many narratives swirl around the U.S. war with Iran as the November 3 midterm elections loom. The Left is giddy with confidence that Democrats may take control of Congress. It is therefore planning a circus of impeachments, lawfare, and investigations to neuter the last two years of the Trump administration. High gas prices and the current unpopularity of the Iran conflict, coupled with the historical reality that the president’s party has lost seats in Congress in 39 of the last 41 midterm elections, have convinced Democrats that they could win enough seats to cut off funds for the war. Yet the elections are still seven weeks away, and the sheer number of known unknowns ensures an uncertain outcome. Every side is now gaming the midterms. The Democrats believe the unpopular war can at last halt Trump’s momentum and are already declaring it all but lost. The Iranian theocracy agrees.” (09/17/26)
https://amgreatness.com/2026/09/17/iran-the-midterms-and-october-surprises/
Source: BBC News [UK state media]
“For four years, India, one of the world’s biggest oil importers, has turned Russia’s war-driven disruption of global oil markets to its advantage. Russian crude, displaced from western markets after the invasion of Ukraine, has flowed instead to Indian refineries, often at attractive discounts. The arrangement has lowered the cost of one of India’s biggest imports and given its refiners an abundant source of crude. Now that bargain is becoming a source of geopolitical risk. The US House of Representatives on Wednesday passed legislation giving President Donald Trump broad powers to impose sanctions on Russia and tariffs of up to 100% on [Americans who buy goods from] countries that buy Russian oil and gas. It will now go to Trump to be signed into law. [Americans who buy goods from] India and China are among those most exposed because both are major buyers of Russian oil.” (09/17/26)
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c3lyrn4p870yo
Source: Independent Institute
by Ivan Eland
“A visit by perennial Trump administration negotiators Steven Witkoff and Jared Kushner to Russian leader Vladimir Putin, followed immediately by one to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Donald Trump’s claim that a ceasefire in that war is imminent might make critics suspicious of another administration attempt to pressure Ukraine for major concessions to end that bloody war, this time in exchange for a Russian stand-down in helping Iran in the administration’s war with that country. Any such obvious mutually advantageous deal could help both Russia and the United States at Ukraine’s expense.” (09/17/26)
https://www.independent.org/article/2026/09/16/trump-ukraine-russia-iran/
Source: Al Jazeera [Qatari state media]
“An Argentinian judge has ordered the suspension of a British-Israeli oil project near the Falkland Islands in a purely symbolic move as Argentina escalates its claim over the British-administered territory. Wednesday’s interim ruling issued by a court in Argentina’s southernmost province, Tierra del Fuego, follows a lawsuit filed by 1982 war veterans and environmental lawyers earlier this month. The plaintiffs sought to block Britain’s Rockhopper Exploration and Israel’s Navitas Petroleum from the Sea Lion oilfield, located about 220km (137 miles) from the islands. … London maintains the islands are British and rejects the jurisdiction of Argentinian courts in the Falklands. The islanders themselves voted overwhelmingly in 2013 to remain British.” (09/17/26)
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/9/17/argentinian-judge-orders-suspension-of-falklands-oil-project
Source: Free the People
“Gamifying Civics to Promote Liberty | Guest: Daniel ‘Free’ O’Connell.” (09/16/26)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4c4E491aGsA
Source: Washington Post
by Philip K Howard
“The phobia against human judgment is America’s unspoken taboo. As a result, the American state is floundering. The evils of bureaucratic micromanagement include: inability to adapt to new circumstances (sluggish defense procurement), diversion to rule compliance instead of doing the job (doctors and nurses spend half their time on desk work), loss of a sense of individual agency and pride (why bother when drowning in law?) and listless public cultures.” (09/16/26)
https://archive.is/WZNLN
Source: SFGate
“A California billionaire tax proposal is skating toward a narrow win in November according to a poll released Tuesday, although the measure is exposing deep generational divides in the state. A slim 52% of voters support Proposition 40, which would levy a one-time tax on billionaires, according to a Public Policy Institute of California poll. The poll found opposition was close behind, with 46% of voters not supporting it. Surveys have found voters consistently support the measure, although the latest PPIC poll shows a slight decrease in support from when the same group asked voters about the measure in the spring. … The measure would levy a one-time 5% tax on the approximately 250 billionaires who lived in the state on Jan. 1, 2026, and it would be owed with their 2026 tax returns, although the billionaires could pay in installments.” [editor’s note: In addition to it being an evil and idiotic idea, the back-dating violates the US Constitution’s prohibition on ex post facto laws – TLK] (09/16/26)
https://www.sfgate.com/politics/article/california-billionaire-tax-support-22435258.php
Source: Liberalism.org
by Jeffrey Syck
“No one today can think Jefferson to have been morally upright in all that he did. His writings and his work to achieve a liberal society—in some areas—are impossible to reconcile with his enslavement of other human beings, or the particularly cruel ways that he treated them. And yet he stands at the founding of our country. His proudest accomplishments survive, and it falls to us to explain how such a man could contain such contradictions.” (09/16/26)
https://www.liberalism.org/p/jefferson-s-liberal-morals
Source: The American Prospect
by Gillian Brockell
“The Office of Inspector General (OIG) for the Department of Homeland Security released a scathing report last Friday about the shuttered Florida concentration camp built on an abandoned airstrip known as ‘Alligator Alcatraz’, concluding the camp failed to meet numerous health and safety standards, and that the use of ‘small metal enclosures’ was ‘unprecedented’ and posed ‘significant risks to detainee health and safety’. The report included photos, taken by OIG inspectors during an “unannounced” visit in January to the camp, showing a phone booth–sized cage set up outdoors under a temporary awning. Staff at the camp euphemistically described the cages as ‘calming areas’ where detainees could ‘reflect on their behavior choices, manage their emotions’ and, they claimed, leave whenever they wanted.” (09/17/26)
https://prospect.org/2026/09/17/alligator-alcatrazs-tiny-cages-were-likely-even-tinier/
