“No one ever quite knows the nature of the aftermath of any war in the Middle East. The current effort to disarm and neuter the Iranian theocracy is no exception. But contrary to European and American left-wing consensus, the ripples of the Iran war are already remaking the postwar world as we knew it, and in ways that are all bad. For more than half a century, OPEC has terrorized the industrial world with threats of oil shortages and sky-high prices, with members often agreeing to cut back to 70–80 percent of their capacities. But recently, the hard-pressed United Arab Emirates announced — at a time of high oil prices — that it was leaving the cartel and freelancing.” (05/05/26)
“Richard Dawkins has come in for a lot of deserved mockery for declaring that Anthropic’s LLM Claude is conscious after futzing about with it for three days (and incidentally renaming it ‘Claudia’). But in fact, he didn’t quite declare that it was conscious. What he said was that he couldn’t see how to prove that it wasn’t conscious. ‘Claudia’ appeared to think creatively in a complex manner and to engage in introspection. If that wasn’t evidence of consciousness, he wondered, then what would be evidence? Moreover, he asked, if we assume that ‘Claudia’ is not conscious, then its behavior appears to be proof that you don’t need to be conscious to think creatively in a complex manner and to engage in introspection. If that is the case, then why are we conscious? What is consciousness for?” (05/04/26)
“Recently, I had the opportunity to stand in a friend’s kitchen eating pupusas, the Salvadoran national food, while listening to an update on conditions in Central America from Cristosal’s Noah Bullock. Cristosal is a key Central American human rights organization engaged in legal advocacy, forensic investigation, and amplifying the voices of people who are experiencing — and resisting — repression in El Salvador, Honduras, and Guatemala. Noah offered considerable detail on the conditions in those countries, but his basic message for us living so far away was simple: No matter how dark the road gets, we keep on walking. We know the sun will rise again. So, while most of the world (and the media) is all too reasonably focused on the ever-evolving, increasingly disastrous conflicts in Iran and Lebanon, I found myself instead thinking about the countries to our south.” (05/05/26)
Source: David Friedman’s Substack
by David Friedman
“Both the FDA and CDC pages make a point of the fact that vaping is not safe while conceding that it is less bad than smoking. That, plus the absence of numbers, made me suspect that they might be exaggerating how dangerous vaping is. If vaping is only a tenth as dangerous as smoking, if the benefit from getting one smoker to switch to vaping is as large as the benefit from persuading nine vapers to quit entirely, putting the emphasis on how unsafe vaping is instead of on how much safer it is than smoking might be counterproductive.” (05/04/26)
Source: Ludwig von Mises Institute
by Ryan McMaken
“The phrase ‘political opportunity’ was developed decades ago to describe the phenomenon that successful revolutionaries, reformers, and activists have long understood: that significant changes in political institutions come out of a mixture of ideology and historical conditions. Political events are not determined only by the battle of ideas, but also by ideological and political movements being present in the right place at the right time. It’s not enough for an ideology to have a ‘good argument.'” (05/04/26)
“For a war that was formally ‘ended’ by the president, there is still sure a lot of shooting going on. Specifically, the United Arab Emirates claimed that it intercepted Iranian missile and drone attacks on Monday, though at least one strike hit the Fujairah oil hub, which had been flowing through a pipeline to the southeast of the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. military says it’s aiding stranded tankers through the strait, though satellite imagery doesn’t show those movements. A South Korean vessel in the strait does appear to have been struck, and other reports indicate that two U.S.-flagged merchant ships made it out. I don’t think a lot of shipowners will risk the journey given the events in the region. Only an actual resolution to the crisis will alleviate the stress on the global economy, and that’s not coming anytime soon, for reasons we here at Aftermath have expressed.” (05/05/26)
“Just 60 years ago, we were talking the end of ideology. Thirty years ago, we were talking about the end of socialism — and of history itself! — as capitalist democracies seemed triumphant after the fall of the USSR. But here it’s A.D. 2026 and we have socialist mayors in New York and Seattle and … we don’t need to argue about definitions. They call themselves socialist.” (05/04/26)
“Traditionally, a public-health problem was something that damaged or threatened the health of a large number of people without their consent and could only be addressed through collective action. Industrial pollution, cholera in the water supply, infectious disease, that kind of thing. If you walk around infected with SARS, it affects me in a way that you walking around with obesity doesn’t. That is what makes it a public-health issue rather than a mere lifestyle choice. … Over time, ‘public health’ has been redefined to include activities like smoking and it is now virtually a catch-all term. … As we saw during the pandemic, politicians can get away with nearly anything so long as it involves ‘public health.’” (05/04/26)
Source: Future of Freedom Foundation
by Jacob G Hornberger
“The Watson family has been dairy farming since before the Civil War. But no longer. [Brad] Watson recently had to auction off all of his dairy cows, each of which had a name that Watson’s children had given them. The reason that Watson lost all of his daily cows? Two reasons: Trump’s tariffs and Trump’s war on Iran, which have caused fertilizer costs to soar. Barely making it as it was, the tariffs and the soaring fertilizer costs sent the Watson dairy operation over the cliff. … the Watson story is just one of many across the United States. There are countless other people who are suffering the consequences of Trump’s tariff sprees and his illegal war of aggression on Iran. Only a few of these horror stories will end up in the mainstream press.” (05/04/25)
“While we should not trust any public pronouncements made by the Iranians (nor should our government take private ones at face value either), the regime has effectively acted in keeping with the perception it wishes to create: Iran’s leaders are not impatient for negotiations, nor do they seem willing to make accommodations in advance of any, while simultaneously demanding preconditions from the United States. The only indications of Iranian eagerness to seek peaceful resolution come from Trump — who has a less than firm relationship with the truth — claiming that the Iranians have told him privately they are desperate to give in to each of our demands. That would strain credulity under any circumstances, but especially after the president has made many, many claims of Iranian surrender or concession over the course of the nine-week conflict, all of which have proven to be demonstrably false.” (05/04/26)
