“As good investors know, it is often better to cut your losses and move on rather than ride a bad investment to the bottom. Despite his bluster, Trump is reluctant to pull the trigger on attacking Iran’s energy structure. He should follow that instinct and avoid such escalation. The next step will be harder for him, however. His psychology seems to prevent him from admitting that his war on Iran has failed. Yet, as a master of bending perceived reality to fit his own ends, Trump should take the famous advice that Rudy Giuliani gave him for a previous caper: ‘Just say we won.'” (08/04/26)
“Veteran political strategist Garry South has just published a guest commentary in the San Francisco Chronicle in which he asks the question, ‘Is Steve Hilton a serious candidate?’ South then launches a series of attacks to make clear he doesn’t think Hilton is gubernatorial material. But only a serious contender could have survived California’s so-called ‘jungle primary’, where voters choose among all candidates regardless of party affiliation. In a field of 61 candidates, Hilton came in second to Democrat Xavier Becerra. These top-two finishers will now face each other in the state’s general election this November. There’s nothing unique about South attacking Hilton in a guest column. Politics is a dirty business, where tone is more potent than truth and emotion more effective than evidence.” (08/05/26)
“Commenters convinced me I made a subtle mis-step in my framing of Psychology Research Is Mostly Fine. My framing emphasized that social priming studies had failed to replicate, but that many other subfields of psychology hadn’t. This naturally led commenters to point to failed replications in other subfields. Although none of these were as bad as social priming, few or none were entirely problem-free. Instead of emphasizing the difference between social priming and other subfields, I should have emphasized the difference between settled science and novel research.” (08/04/26)
“If I considered Trump more heroic than reason and facts could allow, I would say his Sisyphean predicament has the whiff of Greek tragedy to it. Trump is vexed by the fact that the Iranians won’t honor deals or ratify his countless premature claims of victory — giving new meaning to his vow that his presidency would make people tired of winning. It’s almost like they’re out-Trumping Trump.” (08/04/26)
“Let’s take a moment to read some actual words posted on social media by the actual president of the United States of America. On Aug. 3, Donald Trump wrote on Truth Social: ‘My REAL Polling Numbers, not those made up by the Fake News Media, are the best they have ever been.’ It’s an insult to fiction to call that fiction. I’m not sure what you call something more fabricated than fiction – maybe ‘ludicriction’? – but that’s what Trump’s words are. … Trump isn’t living in reality. He’s not allowing real numbers or facts about war or struggling Americans or high food prices to permeate his bubble. He’s living in a world where everything is amazing, and he’s to thank for all of it, and any claim otherwise is fake news.” (08/04/26)
“During a press conference yesterday, Trump had a Bush moment. An unidentified reporter asked Trump about the ‘record profits’ that Exxon and Chevron have supposedly seen. Trump complained that oil companies are ‘making too much money,’ while, in the next breath, touting himself as ‘a big free enterprise guy.’ … If Trump didn’t want oil and gas prices to rise, then he shouldn’t have started bombing Iran, the inevitable consequence of which would be to close the Strait of Hormuz, the chokepoint for roughly a fifth of global oil supply.” (08/04/26)
“In the month celebrating 250 years of red, white and blue, Americans were seeing plenty of red — and not just as part of commemorative trifectas or midterm forecast maps.” (08/04/26)
“The boat strikes haven’t made a dent in the flow of drugs into this country, nor was there ever any reason to believe that they would. Combating drug trafficking was the official excuse to start the killing, but it was always just an excuse. In the last ten months, the campaign has taken on a life of its own. It makes no difference to the president or Hegseth that the campaign is a failure on its own terms. They are killing these people at least in part to show their contempt for the law and to prove that they won’t be bound by it. They are testing to see how far they can go before they encounter serious opposition. There is no sign that the administration will stop killing civilians at sea unless it is forced to.” (08/04/26)
“The Articles of Confederation are often remembered as a failure. But their limits on taxing and commercial power offered greater protection for economic freedom than the Constitution that replaced them.” (08/04/26)
