“Why don’t economics—the analysis of the social consequences of individual actions—and a knowledge of initial conditions suffice to make predictions? There are many reasons. Initial conditions cannot all be perfectly measured and are continuously disturbed, which generates divergent trajectories and creates new surprises as time goes on. Preferences (tastes and values) dwell in the head of each individual. Moral character may be opaque. Thanks to the law of large numbers, the average behavior of a group of individuals may be predictable (consider the law of demand: quantity demanded is an inverse function of price), but the actions of a specific individual are not. The longer the prediction horizon, the more fog in the oracle’s crystal ball. Not surprisingly, my own predictions have not all been glorious.” (01/12/26)
“Radley Balko’s article ‘Trump’s Immigration Nightmare: It Is Happening Here,’ may very well be the best article on Trump’s immigration policy. … We have four basic choices, as far as I can tell. #1: You can support these policies. If you do, I don’t see how you can call yourself a libertarian, a liberal, or anybody of any ideology — including conservatism — who claims to love liberty or support the ideals of the American Revolution. #2: You can oppose them but engage in what I call DTS — Downplaying Trump Syndrome. … #3: You can stick your head in the sand and not want to read about it or talk about it or be concerned with it. … #4: You can do something about it.” (01/12/26)
Source: Responsible Statecraft
by William LeoGrande
“Back in 2014, economist Pavel Vidal estimated that if Venezuelan oil were suddenly cut off, the Cuban economy would drop 7.7 percent. Today, when Venezuela provides far less than it did then and the price of oil is about half of what it was, the impact would be less. But Cuba’s GDP has already fallen about 15 percent since the COVID pandemic. Another 4 or 5 percent drop would exacerbate the vicious circle of declines in domestic production reducing export earnings, and widening the gap between what Cuba needs to import and what it can afford. Would that be enough to collapse the Cuban government? Trump certainly seems to think so. … Such confidence is not new. Washington officials have been predicting the imminent end of the Cuban government since 1959.” (01/12/26)
“There are moments within traditions of thought when the pressure of events breaks apart ideas and ways of thinking that had subsisted for ages in relative harmony. These moments, often called tipping points, mark an instant when a particular notion suddenly takes prominence in public opinion due to its seeming conformity with the logic of events. Such was the publication of Thomas Paine’s Common Sense, announced for sale by Robert Bell’s print shop in Philadelphia on January 9 and officially distributed on January 10, 250 years ago. Until that time, debate over the question of colonial rights to self-government, especially over the question of taxation, had been carried on within the framework and terms of the British or Imperial constitution.” (01/12/26)
“In the midst of the Arctic winter, residents of Greenland are feeling the heat of global geopolitics. United States officials have stepped up insistence on the ‘need’ to take control of the mostly ice-covered island by force or by financial means. The declarations stress Greenland’s strategic location along Arctic sea routes – which both Russia and China are vying to use – as well as access to its estimated 1.5 million tons of rare earth mineral reserves. What’s at stake ‘is not just about rare earths – it is about the very idea of sovereignty in an age of resource rivalry’, Phar Kim Beng, of the Institute of International and ASEAN Studies, wrote in the Malay Mail. The U.S. logic is ‘rooted in energy security, future-proofing supply chains (especially minerals) and in the strategic denial of competitors,’ geopolitics analyst and bestselling author Tim Marshall wrote in The Times of London.” (01/12/25)
“Regarding the 2002 invasion and occupation of Iraq, former U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell warned then-President George W. Bush, ‘if you break it, you own it.’ He elaborated, ‘if we take out another country’s government by force, we instantly become the new government, responsible for governing the country and for the security of its people until we can turn all that over to a new, stable, and functioning government.’ … Owning the consequences was a risk as soon as the U.S. moved to depose Maduro. Whatever the outcome, it would have been set in motion by American actions. By supporting the continuation of Maduro’s regime under new management, the Trump administration is implicitly endorsing the censorship, fixed elections, corruption, and brutality that have kept that government in power since it took office under Hugo Chavez.” (01/12/26)
“The protests in Iran have been building for weeks. Initially, the demonstrations were organized by merchants in December in response to a huge fall in the value of the Iranian Rial, their currency. Soon thereafter, the protests expanded to include students and workers and became a massive outpouring of citizens rejecting the country’s tyrannical Islamic regime. This theocracy has been ruling Iran with an iron grip since the overthrow of the Shah, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, in 1979. Since then, Iran has become the largest benefactor for the world’s deadliest terrorist organizations, such as Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis. In response to the protests, the Supreme Leader of Iran, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, claimed that the government ‘would not back down.’ This statement is not surprising as the radical Islamic leaders of Iran have brutally responded to previous protests.” (01/12/25)
“Following the invasion of Venezuela, there have been suggestions that President Trump will direct the US military to invade other countries as well. For example, Secretary of State and National Security Advisor Marco Rubio said, ‘if I lived in Havana and I was in the government, I’d be concerned.’ To no one’ s surprise, Senator Lindsey Graham was delighted by the possibility that Venezuela was just the first of many regime change wars President Trump will wage. … President Trump’s newfound love of regime change wars may be one reason why he is seeking to increase the military budget to 1.5 trillion dollars.” (0/12/26)
Source: The American Conservative
by Spencer Neale
“These days, often your best bet to learn about what’s coming next, from hot-button political topics to shifts in cultural trends, is to check in with the round-the-clock traders on Polymarket and Kalshi. On the two foremost major prediction market websites, people bet real money nonstop on real-world events. Though both platforms have been operable for the better part of half a decade, it’s been the later stage of this year that has witnessed unmistakable growth in volume and name recognition for both. So much so that the two platforms are suddenly signing major deals with global tech and financial leaders amid their rise as the latest darlings of the internet these final months of 2025.” (01/12/26)
