“In graduate school, I recall a professor suggesting that the rational expectations revolution would eventually lead to much better models of the macroeconomy. I was skeptical, and in my view, that didn’t happen. This is not because there is anything wrong with the rational expectations approach to macro, which I strong support. Rather I believe that the advances coming out of this theoretical innovation occurred very rapidly. For instance, by the time I had this discussion (around 1979), people like John Taylor and Stanley Fischer had already grafted rational expectations onto sticky wage and price models, which contributed to the New Keynesian revolution. Since that time, macro seems stuck in a rut (apart from some later innovations from the Princeton School (related to the zero lower bound issue.)” (11/13/24)
“As we continue to sort through the wreckage of last week’s election, one thing has become very clear: Donald Trump gained ground relative to 2020 in almost every state and with almost every demographic group. Even the most reliably Democratic constituencies, including racial minorities, shifted in his direction, an ominous sign that their coalition may not be as solid as they once thought — and that the Dems have become boxed in as the party of the elite. Though it may be hard to believe this fate has befallen the party of FDR, these changes didn’t happen overnight. Over the past few decades, the Democrats gradually hemorrhaged their support with working-class voters — and their gains with a multiracial coalition, as well as with upper-class voters, never quite compensated for that loss of core identity.” (11/13/24)
“Every national election concludes with an avalanche of thought leadership explaining how the results obviously demonstrate that the author’s pet economic issue was critical to the outcome and, of course, that he or she has been right along. If only candidate X had trumpeted economic policy Y and hewed closer to the author’s own worldview, so these things always go, she could have prevailed over candidate Z, who clearly tapped into the voters demands for said economic policy/worldview. It’s a biannual tradition, and it’s almost always rather silly.” (11/13/24)
“The chairperson of a leading U.S. private prison corporation last week gushed over the ‘unprecedented opportunity’ presented by the prospect of Republican President-elect Donald Trump delivering on his campaign promise to begin the mass deportation of unauthorized immigrants on his first day in office. As Common Dreams reported, Trump’s campaign confirmed that ’the largest mass deportation operation of illegal immigrants’ ever is set to start immediately after the former president returns to the White House on January 20. GEO Group stock surged more than 56% from the close of trading on Tuesday, Election Day, to Friday’s closing bell. Competitor CoreCivic shares skyrocketed 57% over the same period. By contrast, GEO Group stock saw just a 21% rise in the three months preceding Election Day. CoreCivic inched up just 11% over the same period.” (11/14/24)
“Colorado is considered a ‘Blue State’ today – having voted against the GOP and Trump in the last three elections. And with the State GOP in seemingly permanent disarray, and a frankly worthless LP; the General Assembly (both houses) is a hotbed of regressive actions. Maybe not up to California ‘standards’ but bad. But the reality is different. Despite the gerrymandering (the usual political partisanship both old parties engage in), Colorado’s congressional delegation is evenly split: 4 to 4.” (11/13/24)
“Elon Musk’s reward for services rendered to Trump’s campaign will be leadership of a commission to slice waste from and infuse efficiency into government. The world’s richest man is about to get a free public education. He will learn this truism: Life is not one damn thing after another; it is the same damn thing over and over. Musk says he can cut ‘at least’ $2 trillion from federal spending — say, one dollar in three. (Fiscal 2024 spending: $6.75 trillion.) Well. Debt service (13.1 percent of fiscal 2024 spending) is not optional and is larger than defense (12.9 percent), which Trump wants to increase. Entitlements (principally Social Security and Medicare) are 34.6 percent, and by Trumpian fiat are sacrosanct. So, Musk’s promise is to cut about 30 percent of the total budget from a roughly 40 percent portion of the budget, politics be damned.” (11/13/24)
“Sean Beienburg’s Progressive States’ Rights: The Forgotten History of Federalism is a novel addition to the study of American political development, uncovering an important tension within American progressivism. The work’s virtue is that it analyzes the early twentieth-century progressives neutrally, considering them as good-faith actors consistent with the American political tradition. By neglecting political theory, however, the book ignores the ways the early progressives departed from the Framers’ understanding of natural rights and rejected their tradition in significant ways. Even as some of the early progressives embraced the concept of ‘states’ rights,’ they abandoned a more universal conception of individual rights as natural and inalienable. They temporarily respected the means of our constitutional order in defiance of its proper end.” (11/13/24)
“The filibuster demands a 60-vote supermajority in the 100-seat Senate in order to shut off debate and vote on most legislation. Yet, in recent times, both parties, when in the majority, have carved out exceptions. To be clear, the majority party could at any time kill the filibuster. It is simply a Senate rule — not a law, not a constitutional provision. … Either the United States Senate should have a filibuster rule or not. Let’s debate and decide. But one thing is clear: the Senate should not have a 60-vote majority requirement that either majority party can jettison whenever it so desires. Put the filibuster into the Constitution. Or — because an amendment is such a long, arduous process — pass a statute establishing the filibuster in law. This would at least provide a presidential check on Congress monkeying around with it.” (11/13/24)
“While legacy media bemoans X as a failing cesspool of misinformation, savvy users know it as a rare source of truth. The same goes for Rumble — a crucial platform because video is king. Over 2.5 billion people tune in to Youtube monthly. That’s five times X’s monthly scrollers. Rumble, the newcomer, is doing less than 2% of Youtube’s numbers, but with 26% growth over the last quarter, it’s proving itself a serious contender in the video format media race. But why does Rumble matter? For those who care about the free exchange of ideas, Rumble offers a unique space.” (11/13/24)
“At a time when Americans worry — for good reason — that the apparatus of the state is used to punish the political enemies of those in charge, a government employee just got caught doing what many people fear has become common practice: politicizing the use of government power. A Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) official who ordered workers to deny assistance to Trump supporters affected by Hurricane Milton powerfully bolstered the arguments of those of us who want government kept small and out of the way to minimize the danger it represents.” (11/13/24)
