New York Fed: Tariff price increases can take a year to fully show up

Source: Axios

“Tariff inflation has a long tail. Higher import costs can ripple through U.S. supply chains, with effects on domestically produced goods emerging as much as a year later, according to Federal Reserve Bank of New York researchers. The inflation hit from 2025 tariffs is fading, but newer levies are still feeding through to prices as inflation is already too high for policymakers’ comfort. … The authors previously found that U.S. companies and consumers bore most tariff costs earlier this year — research that Trump economic officials sharply criticized. … The researchers estimate that President Trump’s tariffs added 2.9 percentage points to consumer goods inflation by February 2026 (excluding services and oil).” (10/07/26)

https://www.axios.com/2026/10/07/trump-tariffs-fed-inflation-prices