Source: Astral Codex Ten
by Scott Alexander
“Superforecasting is the art/science/sport of predicting the future – for example, who will win elections, which countries will fight wars, when key technologies will be discovered. Over the past few years, it went from an obscure academic subfield to a multibillion dollar industry in the form of prediction markets. More recently, AI superforecasters have come close to the accuracy of top humans, and their performance is rising rapidly. … Either humans have already come close to some fundamental limit on the predictability of world events – in which case AIs will plateau at or slightly above the human level – or the trend line will continue until AIs are far beyond top humans.” (08/03/26)
https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/does-forecasting-have-room-at-the