Source: Cato Institute
by Scott Lincicome & Chad Smitson
“Today (July 1) marks the official deadline for renewing the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement — and the US is expected to miss it. As I argued in my latest Bloomberg column, the missed deadline won’t be entirely costless but also won’t be as consequential as many headlines suggest. For starters, a missed deadline today simply means the deal will revert to annual reviews until it’s either extended for 16 more years or expires in 2036—ten years away. This will inject uncertainty into North American supply chains, likely hampering investment on the margins. But in terms of day-to-day trade among the three nations, it’ll be unnoticeable. Trump could, of course, try to withdraw from the deal—any party can for any reason, with six months’ notice—and he’s threatened as much. But, as I explain in my column, it’s a safe bet he’s bluffing.” (07/01/26)
https://www.cato.org/blog/missed-usmca-deadline-doesnt-mean-deal-dead