Source: The Hill
by Emzari Gelashvili
“Russia entered the war at maximum sustainable capacity without general mobilization. After years of attrition, it has burned through most of its Soviet-era equipment stocks. Given Russia’s weakened state, a conventional confrontation with NATO is not only unlikely now, but it has become almost impossible — prohibitively expensive and demographically unsustainable. The real strategic risk is not a confident Russia launching a conventional assault on the Baltics. It is the behavior of a cornered, nuclear-armed state that perceives itself in terminal decline. A leadership facing military failure and domestic crisis may calculate that tactical nuclear signaling or hybrid escalation offers its best chance to reset the board.” (05/18/26)
https://thehill.com/opinion/national-security/5880263-russia-decline-military-economy-2026/