Source: New York Post
“The latest long-range European forecast shows there’s a 100% chance of a super El Niño, potentially suppressing hurricane activity and making for a wetter fall and winter in the southern U.S. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) issued their May long-range forecast model, which ups the chances of the strongest El Niño ever hitting by November. … Typically, a strong El Niño like this one would mean suppressed hurricane activity in the Atlantic, and increased activity in the Eastern Pacific. However, the ECMWF isn’t yet showing a strong decrease in hurricane forecast numbers for the season, making it possible that the strongest El Niño effects may not be felt until later into the season.” (05/07/26)
https://nypost.com/2026/05/07/science/2026-el-nino-intensity-forecast-explained-what-to-know/