Source: Bet On It
by Bryan Caplan
“When Emperor Hirohito decided to surrender to the Allies, he provoked an attempted military coup. When asked, ‘Why didn’t Czar Nicholas back down in 1914?’ historians’ standard answer is, ‘Because if he had, Pan-Slavist hawks would have overthrown him.’ … Even if a large faction of the leadership of theocratic Iran, Imperial Japan, Nazi Germany, or Czarist Russia wants to make peace, they probably won’t. Indeed, even if the Supreme Leader wants to make peace, they probably won’t. My reaction, in contrast, is agentic. If by some miracle, I were the Supreme Leader of any of these countries, I have devised a strategy to make peace with high probability of success — and low risk to myself. It’s not pretty, and once you grasp my strategy, you may think ill of me for publicizing this forbidden knowledge.” [editor’s note: It would work just as well for the US or Israel, if THEIR “Supreme Leaders” actually wanted peace – TLK] (03/24/26)