Source: Racket News
by Ryan Lovelace
“Bettors traded more than $529 million in forecasts of when the U.S. would next strike Iran in a market opened last year on Polymarket, the self-described world’s largest prediction market. Bets on Polymarket are made with cryptocurrency, and each trade is countered by another user, so not exactly versus ‘the house.’ By contrast, $133.8 million was bet on last month’s Super Bowl across Nevada’s 186 sportsbooks, representing a 10-year low, according to data from the Nevada Gaming Control Board. … But betting big on war is not exactly a new phenomenon and the outcomes are far from guaranteed, as America’s enemies found out the hard way 250 years ago. Over drinks at Brooke’s in London on Christmas Day, 1776, legend has it British Gen. John Burgoyne bet a colleague 50 guineas he would return by the following Christmas having squashed the American patriots’ rebellion.” (03/17/26)