Source: Foreign Policy
by Ali Wyne
“At his January 2025 confirmation hearing to become the U.S. secretary of state, Marco Rubio assessed that ‘unless something dramatic changes’ in Asia’s military balance, China would attempt to invade Taiwan before the end of the decade. This view is widely shared. … The good news is that the short-term likelihood of a Chinese attack on Taiwan has diminished, even as it remains too high. The cause of this development, however, is not exactly reassuring. The events of the past year give Chinese leader Xi Jinping good reason to believe that his U.S. counterpart, President Donald Trump, will facilitate his attempt to extend China’s influence over the island without having to gamble on an invasion.” (02/25/26)