Source: Responsible Statecraft
by William LeoGrande
“Back in 2014, economist Pavel Vidal estimated that if Venezuelan oil were suddenly cut off, the Cuban economy would drop 7.7 percent. Today, when Venezuela provides far less than it did then and the price of oil is about half of what it was, the impact would be less. But Cuba’s GDP has already fallen about 15 percent since the COVID pandemic. Another 4 or 5 percent drop would exacerbate the vicious circle of declines in domestic production reducing export earnings, and widening the gap between what Cuba needs to import and what it can afford. Would that be enough to collapse the Cuban government? Trump certainly seems to think so. … Such confidence is not new. Washington officials have been predicting the imminent end of the Cuban government since 1959.” (01/12/26)