The Limits of Economic Foresight and the Oracle of Delphi: Why Models Warn, but Never Predict

Source: Cobden Centre
by Elias Sanchez

“In antiquity, kings, generals, and heroes journeyed to the Oracle of Delphi seeking guidance about the future. Their questions were strikingly similar to those posed by economists today: What will happen if I choose this path? Will victory come next season? Will prosperity return? The oracle, seated above fissures of intoxicating vapours, never gave precise forecasts. Her answers were elliptical, conditional, and interpretive. ‘If Croesus goes to war with Persia, he will destroy a mighty empire,’ she told Croesus — but she did not specify whose. The message was merely a signal, not an itinerary blueprint. In this sense, the Delphic pilgrimage mirrors contemporary economics.” (12/02/25)

https://www.cobdencentre.org/2025/12/the-limits-of-economic-foresight-and-the-oracle-of-delphi-why-models-warn-but-never-predict/