Source: Astral Codex Ten
by Scott Alexander
“The Chinese don’t really believe in recursive self-improvement or superintelligence. If they did, they wouldn’t be so blasé about the possibility of America having AIs 1-2 years more advanced than theirs – if our models pass the superintelligence threshold while theirs are still approaching it, then their advantage in humanoids and drones no longer seems so impressive. What is the optimal counter-strategy for America? We’re still debating specifics, but a skeletal, obvious-things-only version might be to preserve our compute advantage as long as possible, protect our technological secrets from Chinese espionage, and put up as much of a fight as possible on the application layer.” (11/25/25)
https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/why-ai-safety-wont-make-america-lose