No, Tariffs Did Not Cause September’s Budget Surplus

Source: Cobden Centre
by Ryan McMaken

“According to the Treasury Department’s monthly report for September, the budget deficit turned positive last month, with tax receipts coming in at $197 billion above federal outlays. This sizable one-month surplus was due to a large month-to-month drop in federal spending for the month. Contrary to what some protectionists and Trump advocates have claimed, however, the surplus was not significantly driven by tariff revenues.” (10/30/25)

https://www.cobdencentre.org/2025/10/no-tariffs-did-not-cause-septembers-budget-surplus/