Source: Bet On It
by Bryan Caplan
“When I delved into the empirical growth literature, I was surprised to learn that macroeconomists struggle to detect much effect of education on growth. In most data sets, the national education premium is a small fraction of the private education premium. I also discovered a handful of papers testing for reverse causation from GDP to education, suggesting that the economic benefits of education are even smaller than they look. I was glad the reverse causation papers existed, but they were only moderately convincing. I’d hardly call them a smoking gun. During my trip to Qatar this summer, however, I saw the smoking gun in all its glory. The gun’s name is Education City.” (09/24/25)