Source: Responsible Statecraft
by Michael Corbin
“Russia’s economy is at a critical juncture. It is not an understatement to say that Moscow needs these Alaska peace talks with the Trump administration on Friday to end the Ukraine war as much as Kyiv does. Mixed indicators in June signal that the overall economy seems relatively stable for the near term, but recession may be on the horizon. It may be trying to hide it, but Moscow can no longer obscure the true costs of the war, which are in part to blame for current conditions. After the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the Kremlin initially used budget spending, counter-sanctions measures, and credit growth to boost investment, which were largely successful as the economy grew near 4 percent in 2023 and 2024. However, in late 2024, the measures used to secure a war economy led to economic overheating, wage growth, and rampant inflation.” (08/12/25)