Source: Mindset Shifts
by Barry Brownstein
“Forecasting is noisy. Reliable forecasts are made by people with a distinctive thinking style. Kahneman examines the mindset of what Philip Tetlock calls superforecasters. ‘Sheer intelligence’ isn’t enough to be a superforecaster. What is essential is an ‘active open-mindedness’ valuing evidence ‘that goes against their beliefs.’ Superforecasters are in perpetual beta. … Dr. Fauci was not a superforecaster. There is little evidence that he worked in ‘perpetual beta,’ gathering and synthesizing perspectives. On the contrary, he attacked those he disagreed with, such as the authors of the Great Barrington Declaration. Real leaders listen to others; they don’t dominate others. When it comes to the medical profession, we want to believe we can rely on our doctors. Many people wanted to believe Dr. Fauci. Yet, the medical profession is especially noisy.” (07/23/25)
https://mindsetshifts.substack.com/p/good-medicine-requires-second-opinions-6c1