Source: Cato Institute
by Ryan Bourne
“Will President Trump and Elon Musk really slash government spending this year? If you believe Kalshi’s (pretty thin) betting market this morning, there’s a 34 percent chance that federal spending will be cut by at least $1 billion and a 5 percent chance of $1 trillion in cuts in 2025. I hate to break it to DOGE’s supporters, but those odds are wildly optimistic. Under the terms of the specific bet, even $1 billion in spending cuts is next to impossible.” (03/03/25)
https://www.cato.org/commentary/betting-markets-scale-doges-challenge