Source: Astral Codex Ten
by Scott Alexander
“The Median Voter Theorem says that, given some reasonable assumptions, the candidate closest to the beliefs of the median voter will win. So if candidates are rational, they’ll all end up at the same place on a one-dimensional political spectrum: the exact center. Here’s a simple argument for why this should be true: suppose the Democrats wisely choose a centrist platform, but the Republicans foolishly veer far-right …. Now suppose that every voter … reasonably chooses the candidate closest to their own position …. The Democrats get most of the vote and win easily. Here the Republicans’ best strategy is obvious: shift to the middle. Now it’s 50-50 again and both sides have an even chance of winning. … Elegant as this proof may be, it completely fails to describe the real world.”
https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/secrets-of-the-median-voter-theorem