Source: Underthrow
by Max Borders
“‘The fox knows many things; the hedgehog one great thing.’ — Archilochus. Philosopher Isaiah Berlin expanded on Archilochus’s insight In the twentieth century. Then, socio-political forecaster Philip Tetlock turned it into a research program called the Good Judgement Project. As Tetlock sees matters, Hedgehogs have one big theory or predictive model. They’re happy to apply this grand theory in most contexts and confidently express their views. But the Foxes are different. Foxes are skeptical of grand theories and tend to be more modest and tentative with their forecasts. Foxes are ready to adjust their ideas based on feedback from the world. While no one always predicts with 100 percent accuracy, Foxes significantly outperform Hedgehogs.” (10/07/24)
https://underthrow.substack.com/p/are-you-a-fox-or-a-hedgehog