Source: Cato Institute
by Scott Lincicome & Chad Smitson
“Today (July 1) marks the official deadline for renewing the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement — and the US is expected to miss it. As I argued in my latest Bloomberg column, the missed deadline won’t be entirely costless but also won’t be as consequential as many headlines suggest. For starters, a missed deadline today simply means the deal will revert to annual reviews until it’s either extended for 16 more years or expires in 2036—ten years away. This will inject uncertainty into North American supply chains, likely hampering investment on the margins. But in terms of day-to-day trade among the three nations, it’ll be unnoticeable. Trump could, of course, try to withdraw from the deal—any party can for any reason, with six months’ notice—and he’s threatened as much. But, as I explain in my column, it’s a safe bet he’s bluffing.” (07/01/26)
“Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), XRP, and other major crypto surged over the past 24 hours. This comes as investors responded to Wall Street’s forecasts on slowing nonfarm payrolls, indicating a cooling labor market and Fed rate cut odds. Bitcoin climbed more than 4% to hit a 24-hour high of $61,223 after weaker-than-expected ADP private payroll data and lower oil prices eased inflation concerns. The moves came amid broader market optimism, the US-Iran peace talks, and a sharp fall in ISM Manufacturing PMI prices.” (07/02/26)
“Politics – and specifically political opinions – can turn people into monsters. It’s almost guaranteed. No one is ever a better person because of their political opinions or because they’re involved in politics. In his story, The Strange Case of Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde, Robert Louis Stevenson was writing a morality tale about the good and evil within each individual and the dangers of drug abuse, but it could apply just as well to politics. Politics is a powerful drug, and it brings the evil within each individual to the surface. Someone may be a decent person, but add some political opinions and they can turn into beasts who want people robbed, caged, or killed because they don’t have a compatible political opinion. The more I see it happen, the less I want politics near me.” (07/01/26)
“A federal judge in Arkansas has thrown out a handful of state laws that put extra restrictions on citizen efforts to gather signatures for ballot initiatives, agreeing with challengers that they violated the constitutional free speech rights of voters. The decision handed several victories to the League of Women Voters of Arkansas and other plaintiffs, which sued last year amid efforts in various states to make it harder for regular citizens to make laws or amend their states’ constitution through ballot initiatives. One such measure required someone signing a petition to show photo ID. That and other additional ballot-initiative restrictions were imposed by Arkansas’ GOP-controlled state government after election officials cited a legal technicality to reject petitions submitted by abortion rights supporters in a 2024 effort to legalize abortion in the conservative state.” (07/01/26)
“Former FBI director Robert Mueller was a twenty-first century version of J. Edgar Hoover, trampling the Constitution and seizing new power on any pretext. When Mueller died in March, the New York Times eulogized him as a ‘button-down, lockjawed, rock-ribbed exemplar of a vanishing caste.’ Media tributes poured in as if Mueller was the law-enforcement version of Mother Theresa. But tell that to the Liberty City Seven, victims in a landmark case in the war on terror that should have defined Mueller’s legacy far more than his photo ops at congressional hearings. The FBI completely fabricated the Liberty City plot in Miami. But Mueller lied, telling America that the arrestees — mostly Haitian-Americans — a ‘homegrown terrorist cell … self-recruited, self-trained, and self-executing.'” (07/01/26)
“The former head of the IDF’s Hostages and Missing Persons Command said on Wednesday that after October 7, Israel ‘conducted a long war that could have ended at least a year earlier,’ adding that there were hostages held in Gaza that could have ‘been returned alive.’ According to the former chief of the unit, Maj. Gen. (Res.) Nitzan Alon, Israel ‘could have achieved the same results or avoided failing to achieve those we did not achieve, such as disarming Hamas, and so on.’ … The Likud party responded to Alon, saying that he ‘asked to surrender to Hamas’s conditions, withdraw from Gaza and end the war, while simultaneously leaking briefings from the most sensitive discussions and harming the negotiations.'” (07/01/26)
“Both the American and French Revolutions promised ‘power to the people.’ One delivered it; the other descended into bloodshed and chaos. Why?” (07/01/26)
“China has emerged as the sole winner in Asia from the strait of Hormuz crisis, according to a report published on Tuesday. The report by the geopolitical consulting firm Asia Group concluded that China had weathered the storm of the global commodities crisis resulting from the closure of the Middle Eastern waterway, and also stood to gain from the economic and geopolitical trends sparked by the wider conflict. … China’s electric vehicle exports soared by more than 110 percent in May compared with the previous year, while solar shipments in April increased by 60 percent.” (07/01/26)
“Private sector employment grew by a seasonally adjusted 98,000 for the month, down from 122,000 in May and a bit below the forecast for 110,000, ADP reported Wednesday. Nearly half the job creation in June — 48,000 — came from the education and health services sector, a consistent leader for payroll growth. All but 2,000 of the new jobs came from services. Annual pay gains for those staying in their jobs held steady at 4.4% while edging higher to 6.6% for job switchers.” (07/01/26)
“Robby Soave gives his radar on leftist candidates like Graham Platner and Darializa Avila Chevalier finding support among more affluent voters rather than the working class.” (07/01/26)
