“The war in Ukraine shattered a core assumption about great-power dominance: that size and military strength are enough to impose one’s will. Ukraine showed otherwise. With the right strategy, geography, and resolve, a weaker state can survive and blunt — and in key respects even defeat — a much stronger adversary. The United States now faces an uncomfortable parallel. The war with Iran is exposing similar limits to American power. For decades, U.S. grand strategy has rested on primacy — the belief that America’s unmatched military capabilities enabled it to uphold global stability and shape outcomes across regions. After the failures in Iraq and Afghanistan, many Americans have reached a stark conclusion: the cost of primacy is no longer sustainable — and no longer serves U.S. interests.” (05/08/26)
“Suspiciously well-timed oil and prediction market trades tied to the Iran-U.S. conflict totaled roughly $7 billion. Traders executed massive sell orders in Brent, WTI, gasoline, and diesel futures shortly before ceasefire announcements, strike delays, and Strait of Hormuz reopening news, with some accounts reportedly achieving win rates as high as 93%. Lawmakers and analysts suspect insider leaks, but investigations by the DOJ and CFTC face challenges as prediction markets and digital betting platforms make detecting illegal trading activity increasingly difficult.” (05/10/26)
“If today, compared to the past, you need to work only half the time to earn the money for a television, in effect, you’ve acquired half of the television for free! (Actually, you’ve done better than that because it will be a better television.) And you have the time to acquire other things or enjoy leisure. This is more or less true for everyone whose society is amenable to freedom of enterprise, the division of labor, and world trade.” (05/08/26)
“Brazil’s Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes prohibited the implementation of a sharp reduction in the 27-year prison sentence of former President Jair Bolsonaro for plotting a coup after losing the 2022 election, a court document showed on Saturday. Two Brazilian political parties and the press association ABI this week separately challenged the bill, which would have potentially freed Bolsonaro in 2028. Congress last month overturned President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva’s veto of the bill, but the plaintiffs asked Brazil’s top court to overturn it, saying the bill was unconstitutional.” (05/09/26)
Source: The American Conservative
by Leonid Ragozin
“If you were exclusively on a mainstream Western media diet in recent weeks, you’d be excused for thinking that the Russian President Vladimir Putin’s regime now lies on its deathbed. Signs of ‘public discontent’ are all over the place, you see. Silicon-lipped beauty blogger Viktoria Bonya attacked the government on YouTube. So did the notorious Kremlin propagandist Ilya Remeslo, fresh from a stint at a psychiatric ward. Meanwhile, the former defense minister Sergey Shoygu might be plotting a coup, according to CNN. But if you talk to people inside Russia, as this author does on a daily basis, you’ll find them perplexed and doubting the West’s sanity upon hearing about this fresh bout of ‘Russia is finished’ sentiments.” (05/09/26)
“A car bombing at a police post in northwestern Pakistan followed by an ambush on police personnel rushing to the scene has killed at least 14 officers, police said on Sunday. Images from after the attack on Saturday showed the structure had been reduced to rubble, with bricks, charred wreckage and mangled vehicles scattered around the area. … A militant alliance known as the Ittehad-ul-Mujahideen claimed responsibility for the attack.” (05/10/26)
