Source: The Unpopulist
by Nicholas Grossman
“Iran won’t capitulate under threat, forfeiting major national interests because Trump told it to. His track record suggests he doesn’t have the stomach or strategic foresight for protracted conflict, and will back down if things get difficult, which makes Iranian leaders think they can weather an assault. And they have strong domestic political incentives to resist, fearing that weakness against foreign pressure could fracture the regime or encourage domestic opponents. That leaves the U.S. choosing between another round of limited bombing that accomplishes little, a bigger campaign to collapse the regime with no apparent plan for what comes after, backing down in embarrassing fashion, or an empty ‘deal’ Trump can lie about that, at best, kicks the can down the road and makes the problem even harder to solve. It’s easy to predict which option he’ll pick.” (02/26/26)
https://www.theunpopulist.net/p/trump-cant-win-on-the-cheap-in-iran