Source: Foundation for Economic Education
by Jake Scott
“The IMF’s October 2025 update to its World Economic Outlook delivers a modest upward revision, but lurking behind this seemingly optimistic shift are deeper currents shifting global growth and capital flows. The Fund, originally forecasting in July that global growth would sit at 3% in 2025, now projects 3.2% for 2025, and 3.1% in 2026. A small upgrade on the face of it, yet it is worth remembering that the global economy exceeds $100 trillion, meaning even a fraction of a percent represents significant value. More importantly, the slight upgrade in percentage reflects two contrasting forces: the flip side of higher trade tensions under President Trump’s tariff policy, and a (perhaps temporary) surge in private-sector investment around artificial intelligence.” (10/23/25)