Source: EconLog
by Kevin Corcoran
“Growing up, my family developed a tradition of playing spades …. Every now and then, I would get a hand that made me think ‘wow – what are the odds of getting a hand like this?’ And then I’d (usually) catch myself and remind myself that the odds of my getting this particular mix of 13 cards are exactly the same as any other mix of 13 cards. Why did I have this reaction to some hands, but not others (or even most? … If I told you ‘The odds of X happening to you are approximately 1 in 635 billion,’ you might reasonably conclude that you can be near-certain that X will never occur in your lifetime. And yet, every time you are dealt a hand in spades, something with a 1 in 635 billion chance occurs. Massively improbable occurrences happen all the time — but we mostly don’t notice them.” (07/18/25)