Source: Washington Monthly
by Bill Scher
“Voting has already begun, and politics nerds are poring over voter registration and early vote numbers, especially in states that track party affiliation, to discern which candidate has the upper hand. But extrapolating such data is treacherous business. Critical data about the nature of the Republican, Democratic, and Independent votes are unknown because we lack consistent historical patterns and discernable trends in current polling. Here are the three data points that will remain hidden until the votes are counted: 1. Rate of partisan crossover …. 2. Skew of the independent vote …. 3. Rate and partisan makeup of early and Election Day voting …” (10/24/24)
https://washingtonmonthly.com/2024/10/24/three-unknown-data-points-that-will-decide-the-election/