Source: The Bulwark
by Jonathan V Last
“I’m going to tell you two stories about the current polling landscape. These stories aren’t fully incompatible with one another, but they are in tension. And that tension creates a mystery. The first story is about the Trump-Harris campaign. We now have an idea of what the steady-state dynamic in this race looks like: It’s Harris +2. We’ve been at more-or-less Harris +2 since August 20. … This stability suggests that Harris +2 is the natural balance point unless/until late-deciding voters move in the final two weeks. If (or when) that happens, I would tentatively expect them to break for Harris, since she’s the functional insurgent. But what I want you to focus on is the extent to which this race has been locked in place for a month and a half.” (10/08/24)
https://www.thebulwark.com/p/a-grand-unified-theory-of-why-the