Source: Yascha Mounk
by Yascha Mounk
“With the presidential election one month and one day away, the media is awash in horse race analysis. Legacy newspapers cover the latest poll with baited breath. Pundits share the latest change in the betting markets or in Nate Silver’s prediction model as breaking news. But despite the enormous number of words expended on predicting the outcome, a few wrong assumptions about the American election — and the American electorate — continue to shape much of the debate. This not only makes it hard to predict what is likely to happen on November 5th; it also distorts the trajectory on which American politics is likely to find itself well beyond 2024, whether the winner turns out to be Kamala Harris or Donald Trump.” (10/04/24)
https://yaschamounk.substack.com/p/four-big-myths-about-the-election