Source: Foreign Policy
by Stan Veuger & Mikkel Davies
“With inflation at its lowest level since 2021 and unemployment on the rise, market participants and observers are looking nervously at the Federal Reserve. Is it behind the curve again, as it was when it started raising interest rates two years ago? Is it lowering interest rates too late to avoid a recession now, just like it failed to tighten policy until the economy had started overheating then? The Fed should be setting monetary policy in a forward-looking manner, based on its best understanding of current conditions and forecasts of future conditions. It has deviated significantly from this practice in recent years, perhaps most explicitly when it started relying heavily on what economists call ‘forward guidance’ during the period after the 2007-2008 global financial crisis.” (09/16/24)
https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/09/16/federal-reserve-interest-rates-recession-prediction-past/