Source: CounterPunch
by Stewart Lawrence
“Donald Trump continues to lead Joe Biden, albeit slightly, in national head-to-head polling, and enjoys a larger single-digit lead in most of the key swing states polls. If the election were held tomorrow, he would likely win the presidency, based on the polls alone. But polls, while suggestive, aren’t necessarily predictive. It’s not that the polls are wrong or even subject to change, it’s that stated voter preference, especially five months from election day, doesn’t necessarily determine voter behavior. In the end, it all comes down to voter turnout. Whichever candidate is better able to convince his partisans and the relatively small sliver of swing voters to show up for him at the ballot box will ultimately win.” (06/20/24)
https://www.counterpunch.org/2024/06/20/turn-out-not-polls-will-determine-who-wins-in-2024/