Which Political Victories Cause Backlash?

Source: Astral Codex Ten
by Scott Alexander

“Four years ago I wrote Trump: A Setback For Trumpism, pointing out that when Trump became president, his beliefs became much less popular. … More recently we’ve seen what seems to me to be a similar phenomenon: After a major conservative victory (the Supreme Court overturning Roe), Americans’ opinions shifted heavily in a pro-choice direction after a long period of stalemate. The change seems to be of about equal magnitude regardless of political affiliation …. In the original Trump post, I speculated that the effect might come from people’s dislike of Trump’s personality spreading to a dislike of his policies. I don’t think that can be true here – the abortion ruling was a straightforward policy change with no extra personality component.” (01/19/23)