The Biden Administration Says US Not in a Recession, but Federal Statutes Say Otherwise. Who is Right?

Source: Independent Institute
by Jon Miltimore

“Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen had recently hinted that the White House would contend the economy wasn’t actually in a recession even if Q2 data indicated the economy had contracted for a second consecutive quarter. … Yellen is not wrong that [the National Bureau of Economic Research], a private nonprofit economic research organization, looks at a much broader swath of data to determine if the economy is in a recession, or that many view NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee as the ‘official recession scorekeeper.’ So White House officials have a point when they say ‘two negative quarters of GDP growth is not the technical definition of recession,’ even though it is a commonly used definition. On the other hand, it’s worth noting that federal statutes, the Congressional Budget Office, and other governing bodies use the two consecutive quarters of negative growth as an official indication of economic recession.” (08/03/22)