The Recession is Here. Will Stagflation Follow?

Source: American Institute for Economic Research
by Peter C Earle

“We’ve had two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, but what’s happening under the hood? What about industrial production? Mining has been strong. But many sectors remain stubbornly below pre-pandemic levels, and the post-pandemic recovery seems to be stalling. Manufacturing output has fallen for two months in a row, and motor vehicle parts and vehicle assembly are below 2020 levels. Industrial output is now down for two months in a row with few clear prospects for improvement. Rising costs are creating drag here as well as in consumption — yes, inflation hurts producers as well as consumers. Also contributing to the growing slack are shipping problems, now approaching a year since they made headlines.” (07/30/22)