How big of a wave can House Republicans expect?

Source: National Journal
by Josh Kraushaar

“Even if we assume that House Republicans will cash in on their favorable political environment, there’s still plenty of confusion over how to predict the size of the wave. The Washington Post’s Paul Kane wrote a smart piece last weekend underscoring the confusion over what the best metric is, citing a disputed quote by House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy that the 2022 midterms could be ‘more competitive’ than the 2010 midterms, when House Republicans netted 63 additional seats. National Republican Congressional Committee Chairman Tom Emmer walked back the leader’s bullishness, suggesting that a mere 18-seat gain would already be historic for House Republicans. The reality: McCarthy was correct that the political environment in 2022 could potentially be even more favorable for Republicans than in 2010, but it’s nearly impossible for the party to net 63 seats given that they’re already within striking distance of the majority right now.” (06/15/22)