How Far Can Diplomacy Go? Awaiting the US-Russian Talks in Geneva on January 10

by Gilbert Doctorow

“As the day of the US-Russian talks in Geneva over revising the security architecture in Europe approaches, analysts on both continents are publishing their prognoses of the outcome. Among them are great optimists that the ongoing acute confrontation can be scaled back, and also pessimists who see a clash of arms as inevitable with the risk of its becoming an end in itself. I would categorize my position as optimistic, though predicated upon actual military action occurring in the weeks ahead. That and only that can be the lever to force a diplomatic settlement which is unattainable through talk alone. I also remark up front that it is totally unclear at present which scenario will be realized and which will fall by the wayside.” (01/08/22)