Why The President’s Party Almost Always Has A Bad Midterm

Source: FiveThirtyEight
by Geoffrey Skelley

“One of the most ironclad rules in American politics is that the president’s party loses ground in midterm elections. Almost no president is immune. President George W. Bush’s Republicans took a ‘thumping’ in 2006. President Barack Obama’s Democrats received a ‘shellacking’ in 2010. President Donald Trump’s Republicans were buried under a blue wave in 2018. And the results out of Virginia and New Jersey last November suggest that a red wave might hit President Biden’s Democrats in 2022. It’s worth digging into the data behind this rule, though, and the reasons why it so often holds true. Are Republicans really a lock to sweep the 2022 midterms?” (01/03/22)