Prediction Markets Suggest Replacing Biden

Source: Astral Codex Ten
by Scott Alexander

“The last week hasn’t been great for the Democratic Party. First Biden bombed the debate. But the subsequent decision about whether/how to replace Biden has also been embarrassing. Biden has refused to step aside gracefully, and party elites don’t seem to have any contingency plan. Worse, they don’t even seem united on the need to figure anything out, with many deflecting the conversation to irrelevant points like ‘Trump is also bad’ or pretending that nothing is really wrong. Some of the party’s problems are hard and have no shortcuts. But the big one — figuring out whether replacing Biden would even help the Democrats’ electoral chances — is a good match for prediction markets.” (07/02/24)