The One Thing Wrong with All of the 2024 Polls

Source: Washington Monthly
by Bill Scher

“One challenge for pollsters is determining how third-party and independent candidates will affect the presidential race. As Jacob Indursky reported back in December, ‘third-party candidates almost always shed their early support’ as Election Day grows closer and worries of wasted votes increase. Still, the einclusion of minor candidates in polls can give us some sense of how well the major party candidates are retaining support from their respective coalitions, and what slices of the electorate they need to convince. However, to fulfill that objective, pollsters need to include all the minor candidates with substantial ballot access. Yet almost no pollster has included a Libertarian candidate in national presidential surveys.” (06/06/24)