Lessons from a non-recession

Source: EconLog
by Scott Sumner

“Most economists expected a recession in 2023. This prediction didn’t even come close—indeed 2023 was a boom year. I’ve already discussed one implication of that fact; economists are lousy at predicting the business cycle, and should not even try. There’s another lesson to be derived from the 2023 non-recession; don’t put too much weight on statistical patterns that might look reliable at first glance.” (06/06/24)