Source: Astral Codex Ten
by Scott Alexander
“The average online debate about AI pits someone who thinks the risk is zero, versus someone who thinks it’s any other number. I agree these are the most important debates to have for now. But within the community of concerned people, numbers vary all over the place …. I go back and forth more than I can really justify, but if you force me to give an estimate it’s probably around 33%; I think it’s very plausible that we die, but more likely that we survive (at least for a little while). Here’s my argument, and some reasons other people are more pessimistic.” (03/14/23)
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/why-i-am-not-as-much-of-a-doomer